Gene Munster: Apple Vision Pro sales will be similar to iPad within the next decade
The $3,499 Apple Vision Pro introduces the new era of spatial computing
After spending 48 hours with the Apple Vision Pro, Gene Munster has compiled a list of “trade-offs” facing the new spatial computer and spatial computing platform: price, weight, battery pack, prescription lenses, vision issues, and the cumbersomeness of guest mode which inhibits easy sharing /demoing to friends and family (in contrast to how easy it was to show off the first iPhones to neophytes).
Gene Munster for Deepwater Asset Management:
On day one, the iPhone was immediately useful and it was immediately obvious to me why I would buy one. I wanted desktop class internet in my pocket. I bought an iPhone on day one and have used one every day since.
The iPad has been different. It wasn’t immediately obvious to me how I would use an iPad instead of my Mac or my iPhone. I bought one and I use it from time to time, but I don’t use it daily. Given the lower utility, I upgrade my iPad less frequently.
On the spectrum of revolutionary Apple products over the past 25 years, Vision Pro lands somewhere the middle.
The iPhone (and other post-iPhone smartphones) is one of the highest utility tools humankind has ever created. It stands to reason that Apple, the creator of the category, is one of the largest companies in the world, and iPhone is its largest business (roughly 50% of revenue).
Based on a very limited scope of heavy usage and testing, I believe the Vision product segment will be bigger than Apple Watch (5% of Apple revenue) and smaller than iPhone (50%), similar to iPad (10%), within the next decade.
MacDailyNews Take: The Apple Vision Pro is currently limited because so much of its content was designed for 2D. It’s filled with flat iPad apps running in an OS, visionOS, that offers so many more possibilities. With the passage of time and as developers learn to think and design in 3D — as sculptors, not the poster makers they are today — the Vision Pro will achieve its full promise. That is when it will surpass iPad in revenue and, eventually, unit sales.
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