Apple is about to scoop up Windows 11 upgrade sales

Apple appears to be going from strength to strength as the PC industry recovers, with its rate of growth exceeding the industry average, reports Canalys. It will be interesting to experience the extent to which the company benefits from the move to AI PCs as the industry coalesces around the tech for its next growth wave.

Here comes the Mac sun

The analysts claim global shipments of PCs climbed 3.4% year on year in Q2 24, reaching 62.8 million units, most of which (50m) being notebooks. Desktops saw a slight dip, in comparison experiencing 1% growth.

Windows advocates hope the trend favors the Windows 11 transition and the steady appearance of so-called AI PCs, but they may not have quite as much to look forward to as they might like.

That is because Apple has announced its own AI strategy which it is thought may eventually encompass all of its platforms in all of its regions. It is true to say that the impact of that attempt will be most felt in the US in the next 12-months, as it’s only there where Apple Intelligence is expected to launch.

What about Dell?

It is also true to say that the market for Windows 11 upgrades may reasonably be dented by the proliferation of other devices on other platforms which may end up being better replacement devices than a new PC. iPads are computers too, after all, and may be more appropriate at some points.

We will see the extent to which the Windows upgrade is transformed into an Apple upgrade cycle from the second half of this year, the analysts say. They think customer refresh plans will become more apparent at that time.

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With that in mind it may be interesting to note that Dell saw shipments fall 2%, mainly as a result of US sales in which other manufacturers got the sales. I can’t help but speculate some of those went to Apple.

“The vast majority of channel partners surveyed by Canalys in June indicated that Windows 10 end-of-life is likely to impact customer refresh plans most in either the second half of 2024 or the first half of 2025, suggesting that shipment growth will only gather steam in upcoming quarters,” said Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys

A growth curve? Or a change agent?

“The PC industry is going from strength to strength with a third consecutive quarter of growth,” said Ishan Dutt, Principal Analyst at Canalys. “The market turnaround is coinciding with exciting announcements from vendors and chipset manufacturers as their AI PC roadmaps transition from promise to reality. The quarter culminated with the launch of the first Copilot+ PCs powered by Snapdragon processors and more clarity around Apple’s AI strategy with the announcement of the Apple Intelligence suite of features for Mac, iPad and iPhone.

By the brands

Lenovo maintained its position as the market leader in the global PC market, shipping 14.7 million units (up 4%) in Q2 2024.
HP shipped 13.7 million units.
Dell shipped 10.1 million units, down 2%.
Apple shipped 5.5 million units for 9% market share, marking a 6% increase compared to the same period last year.
Asus rounded out the top five, overtaking Acer, thanks to the success of its gaming PCs. Asus experienced the highest growth in Q2 2024, with a 17% annual increase, shipping 4.5 million units.

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