The iPhone 16’s biggest competitor is the other version of itself

One of Apple’s greatest fears has come to pass: fragmentation has come for the iPhone and iPad. By the end of the year, users in part of the world will be able to harness the power of Apple Intelligence for various tasks–while users in the European Union will be able to set default apps, delete stock Apple apps, buy from alternative App Stores, play Fortnite, use a clipboard manager, and more.

Get ready for the debates over which flavor of iOS is better–the EU version or the AI one. But that debate isn’t what Apple should be concerned about. No, it’s that after years of insisting on locked-down iOS policies, users will see what’s going on in the European Union, and rather than feeling grateful that Apple keeps a close watch on their iPhones, they feel envy.

What EU iOS looks like

In case you don’t live in the EU, here’s where iOS and iPadOS are headed. The App Store is already no longer a monopoly, with the arrival of AltStore and the Epic Games Store.

This means Fortnite, which was removed from App Store after Epic Games pulled a fast one and hid non-Apple in-app purchases inside the game, is now back on the platform for EU users. Apps in categories that Apple simply refuses to allow on the App Store are also available, such as a BitTorrent client and a clipboard manager.

Let that last one sink in for a second: On the Mac, clipboard managers are among the most useful third-party utilities a user can add to their computers. Apple should probably add it to its core operating systems, but it never has. The iPhone and iPad don’t allow third-party apps to extend the user experience in the same way the Mac does–in part because apps that might do so are barred from the App Store. The existence of Clip shows that it’s actually possible–but Apple doesn’t want users to have the choice to use that feature.

In the EU, Apple is adding a new default apps section that will include the ability to set defaults for “dialing phone numbers, sending messages, translating text, navigation, managing passwords, keyboards, and call spam filters.” That’s all in addition to the existing ability to change the default browser and email apps. In other words, Apple is building a system that allows users to swap out its apps (and their preferred position in iOS) with third-party apps that they prefer… just like you’ve been able to do on the Mac forever. But the system will only work in the European Union.

Oh, and apps will be able to link to their own websites and use alternative payment methods outside Apple’s in-app purchase system. (However, some prohibitive fees are still being criticized.)

There are also a few areas where Apple has opened doors in the EU, only to see absolutely nobody rush in. Apple has been mandated to allow alternative browsing engines (like the one that powers Google Chrome) to exist on iOS rather than continuing to force every browser manufacturer to use Apple’s own WebKit engine. But thus far, the company’s rules (and the size of the EU) have meant that nobody seems to be willing to do the work to enter that market.

What Apple doesn’t want to happen

For years, Apple has refused to make changes to iOS because it says it’s concerned about the privacy and security of its users. A locked-down App Store that runs only apps Apple approves of, that doesn’t allow outside links or payment methods, is theoretically much safer than a “wild west” of multiple stores, questionable app categories (like, er, clipboard managers), and the like.

The first danger for Apple is the obvious one: All these things come to the European Union, and nothing much happens. Malware doesn’t reign supreme. iPhones aren’t ruined. Life keeps going on more or less as normal. It puts the lie to Apple’s claims that all the control it has exerted over iOS has been to protect its users.

But to me, the bigger danger is envy. It strikes me that Apple has tried to make residents of the European Union envious of other regions by withholding Apple Intelligence, at least at first. There are legal reasons to do so, of course, but it’s also a lesson to Europeans that if they support such a strict regulatory regime, they’re going to be left on the side of the road while the rest of the world enjoys the bounty of AI features inside iOS. (Whether that bounty actually exists is beside the point.)

Yet, when I consider everything being experimented with in the EU, I start to wonder if the envy is actually going to flow in the other direction. The Verge said that the iPhone is now “more fun” in the EU. Noted iOS expert Federico Viticci wrote that the EU version of iOS “is the version of iOS I’ve wanted for the past few years,” and that “we can finally use our phones like actual computers.”

As someone who loves clipboard managers and uses several apps that aren’t Apple’s defaults, I am warming up to their point of view.

Apple’s response

Where does this go next? One option is for Apple to just ignore what’s happening in the EU in other markets. Most iPhone users don’t pay attention to what’s going on in the tech industry in their own countries, let alone in other parts of the world.

The problem with this is that politicians and regulators do pay attention. And if it starts to feel like the EU’s pressures on Apple are resulting in an improved experience for EU citizens, it’s hard to imagine they won’t feel left out. The more regions and countries that see the EU approach working, the more that will begin to plan their own similar requests of Apple. (And unlike with the EU, Apple won’t be able to claim that it will take years to implement the features–because it’s already implemented them in Europe.)

This is probably why Apple’s actual response to the changes in the EU hasn’t been to put its head in the sand. The company has already made several defensive shifts in its global app policies, such as allowing emulators into the App Store, as a way to defuse some tensions between its EU and worldwide policies.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some EU-only features gradually roll out worldwide. For example, I don’t know why every iPhone user shouldn’t have the ability to choose their default apps!

In the end, I think even Apple sees the writing on the wall. Just this week, the company restructured the App Store executive team, splitting the group into two. One will focus on the global App Store, and the other will focus on “alternative app distribution.” To me, this suggests an understanding that, over time, Apple will increasingly need to deal with iOS development that happens outside the App Store.

Ultimately, Apple and the users of its platforms aren’t served by fragmentation that leads to dramatically different experiences in different countries. Apple’s software teams aren’t served by having to develop and deploy alternate versions of features that don’t serve the broader user base. The more Apple’s moves to meet European demand make the European version of iOS seem appealing rather than dangerous and broken, the more inevitable it becomes that those changes will come to the rest of the world.