Gene Munster: Apple Vision Pro will go mainstream in 2028
Longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster says that the Apple Vision Pro will likely take 5 years to go mainstream and will account for about 14% of Apple’s overall revenue by 2030.
Gene Munster for Deepwater Asset Management:
Vision Pro is a spatial computing headset. Spatial computing is the next logical computing interface, allowing users to interact with digital objects in the real world… Vision Pro is a breakthrough. The limited 30-minute demo I had with the product back in June made me see, for the first time, that the concept of bringing the digital and real worlds together is here.
As for timing, no need to buckle up for the next paradigm shift, because it will take five years to take off.
I believe Vision Pro will be the first spatial computing device that consumers will want to use… Vision Pro, at its core, is the first product to have spatial computing at breakthrough quality.
[For iPhone], it took five years for developers to build about 10 blockbuster apps. That means that only about two apps that matter come out ever year. Five years into the iPhone’s life, those 10 apps played an important role in driving iPhone sales to an inflection point…
For the Watch, it was Apple as the app developer that drove utility. Looking back over the first five years, there were 20 blockbuster features and apps on the Watch, of which 19 were developed by Apple…
Like the iPhone and Watch, I believe Vision Pro will take about five years to go mainstream. Once on the market early next year, I expect the iPhone developers to take notice and start the long road of building applications that drive functionality…
As for unit growth expectations, I expect modest growth of 20% a year through 2026, accelerating to 60% in 2028 once the price declines. By 2031 (its eighth year), I believe Apple could sell 75M Vision units, which compares to the Apple Watch reaching just around 45M units in its eighth year in the market. Seventy-five million units at $1,000 would generate around $75B in revenue. Assuming Apple grows its top line by an average of 5% per year through the end of the decade (which yields total revenue in 2030 of about $550B), the Vision segment would account for about 14% of total Apple sales in 2030.
MacDailyNews Take: It’ll take five years at the longest as Apple will be working hard to drive Vision Pro as quickly into the mainstream as possible.
See also: Apple’s Vision Pro is a Mac on your face – June 6, 2023
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