Apple partnership could boost Affirm’s gross merchandise volume by 35% – Mizuho

Financial services giant Mizuho released a bullish analysis on Thursday regarding the Affirm-Apple Pay partnership. They predict the collaboration could unlock a significant new opportunity for Affirm in the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) space. The analysis estimates this could translate to an additional $12 billion for Affirm, representing a potential 35% growth compared to what analysts were expecting for Affirm’s fiscal year 2025 volume.

Oliver Gray for Investing.com:
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Mizuho’s analysis suggests that the recent surge in Affirm’s stock price following the announcement of the Apple Pay partnership could be justified, as the potential upside is not currently reflected in the stock.

Analysts estimate that Apple Pay represents about $265 billion of e-commerce payment volumes in the US. This estimation is based on a recent report by Worldpay, which stated that Digital Wallets accounted for around $750 billion in the US volume in 2023. The primary wallets included in the report were PayPal, Google Pay, and Apple Pay.

After subtracting an estimate for PayPal US Branded Checkout TPV, Mizuho suggests that the remaining $450 billion in volumes is split between Apple Pay and Google Pay. Using the approximate iPhone/Android mix in the US of 60/40 as a proxy, they estimate that the remaining e-commerce volumes consist of around $265 billion from Apple Pay.

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